Monday, 16 November 2009

Voters switching from Labour

Today's Times has an interesting story here about Labour's cash shortage & that they are concentrating their activity in the run up to the election on seats where their majority is more than 3,000. No mention of Rugby where the notional Labour majority is arounf 2,500 according to Rallings & Thresher, but the article does go on to identify the 4 groups that are most likely to switch from Labour as being:
  • Thirtysomething homemakers who voted Labour in 1997 but are burdened with debt as they start a family — they may turn to the Conservatives;
  • low-skilled, largely unemployed households who will either not vote or turn to far-right parties;
  • those in former manufacturing communities who no longer have strong union and Labour Party ties — they are also vulnerable to extremist lobbying;
  • people approaching retirement in some of the nicer council estates who exercised the right to buy — they may also turn to the Conservatives.

From the time I have spent on the doorsteps across the constituency over the past three years I would say that is pretty accurate and would add to it a small but significant group of young voters from Labour families who will take the trouble to vote, voting Conservative for the first time they vote.