Statistics

I have just been reminded about the election guide concerning Rugby at UK polling report which is here. This suggests that if the new Rugby boundaries had existed at the 2005 general election, the Conservative majority would have been 174. However I see from someone posting on the site that Rallings & Thresher from the University of Plymouth put the position at a Labour majority of 2397. Analysis of what happened last time as an indicator of what might happen next time is all very interesting and I am certainly encouraged by what I read here, particularly when read in conjunction with recent opinion polls. The next big indicator, of course, will be the Rugby Borough Council election results when we are likely to have to wait a little longer to find out how the voters feel. I hear that counting will be on the Friday morning rather than on the same night as polling finishes. A great shame, as I have attended many counts over the years and they are always an “event” full of drama, theatre and tradition It’s never quite the same the next day and I hope this part of the democratic process won’t be lost for ever.