Seats and Candidates

I have just leant from ConservativeHome that David Mowat has been selected as candidate for Warrington South for the next election. David and I were in the same year at Lawrence Sheriff School. He has a Labour majority of 5,000 to overcome and with the way the polls are going, soon there could well be two Old Laurentians in the House. Not quite as many as Old Etonians but Gareth Redd will be pleased nevertheless.

Visit to CCHQ

I spent yesterday in London. Firstly at Conservative Campaign Headquarters where I was shown the new offices in Millbank and later visiting some of my company's customers. While I was there a kind lady from the office took the second photo every candidate should have, the one outside the House of Commons from Parliament Square. You can expect to see a lot more of this one!

Today's budget

I spent the time Gordon Brown was on his feet delivering the budget at the funeral in Nuneaton of Harry Cawthorne, who was the Chairman of Nuneaton Conservatives at the time I was selected and a very generous man, one of a kind. So I wasn’t able to tune in to what was happening in the Commons and after a drink with the many friends I got to know in Nuneaton I rushed to the meeting of a working party at the Council offices.

I’ve just had the opportunity to catch up with the budget proposals looking at a couple of websites & listening to the news in the car. It looks as though Brown has tried to bring out some popular ideas such as the reduction in the basic rate of income tax, despite having next to no room to manoeuvre with spending already committed to massive levels. People and particularly those on lower incomes will think that they’re going to be better off but will loose out because the 10p in the pound rate on the first layer of income is being withdrawn. To maintain their income ,low earning families will have to apply for tax credits, which many of them fail to do as they are too complicated. At the other end of the scale those on higher earning will loose out as national insurance threshold increase. Add this to the buried Lyons report published today proposing an additional Council tax band for more expensive properties, there will be fewer winners from the budget than the Chancellor would have everyone believe. I guess the person intended to benefit from this budget was Brown himself, as he sets out his credentials for Labour MPs to select him as the next Prime Minister and from the reaction I’ve heard he has succeeded in this aim. The consequences for individual people and the country as a whole will be something else.

The importance of house prices

There is a saying that when the US sneezes, Britain catches a cold. There are some interesting statistics coming out about the American housing market showing that in the past year median house prices have dropped by 9.3%. As a consequence 30 lenders have gone bankrupt and there is massive defaulting of debts, particularly where lenders provided 100% loans, or even 105 or 110% to pay for furniture. There’s no suggestion that this is about to happen here but with house prices at an all time high and borrowers self certifying for five times their salary our housing market is very susceptible to changes in interest rates. UK household debt is now £1,300 billion and repossessions are at the highest level since the early 1990s. Gordon Brown has managed to persuade commentators that he has safely handled the economy in his time as Chancellor but for many people things are not looking so rosy. As long as house prices remain on an upward trend, people and especially those who have got onto the property ladder will be happy, but just a modest adjustment will give those people another reason to question Labours suitability to remain in office.

Flying and taxes

I see that the consultation launched by David Cameron over imposing tax on air travel to reduce carbon dioxide emissions has run into some flack from people who fear loosing cheap flights. Often these flights are taken on a whim simply because they are there and because they are cheap. I did a fair bit of research into the then emerging low cost carriers when we mounted our campaign against proposals for a massive new airport in Rugby a few years ago. The case for the airport was based on increasing demand for air travel. One of the reasons for the increase in demand was and still is the unfair price advantage enjoyed by air travel as a consequence of less tax than on other forms of transport, particularly no duty on aviation fuel and no vat. Partly because of this air tickets are available for £9.99 or less and this clearly can’t be sustained. As a believer in fair competition in business it seems to me that additional tax can be supported on the basis of providing both a level playing field between competing methods of travel and the environmental benefits of discouraging carbon emissions. And, of course, there is then the opportunity for lower taxes somewhere else.

With David Cameron

I’ve just returned to the office from the opening of a new factory on Coventry by David Cameron. In addition to getting the photograph every candidate wants, the one with the party leader and next Prime Minister, I was interested to see the operation of a uk owned company working right at the cutting edge. The company is Modec and their details are here. Modec have developed a zero emission delivery vehicle able to carry two tonnes over 100 miles on a single charge. This hits the note on several counts: it is providing manufacturing employment in the West Midlands making use of the highly skilled workforce here and shows how in the field of development and development we are second to none; the product offers environmental benefits by preventing the build up of conventional vehicle emissions; it is silent in operation enabling early morning deliveries without disturbance; it minimises energy usage with regenerative braking and it enables operators to show their green credentials. Small wonder that Tesco are going to start using it for their on-line home delivery service & what better person than David to launch such an exciting project.

Statistics

I have just been reminded about the election guide concerning Rugby at UK polling report which is here. This suggests that if the new Rugby boundaries had existed at the 2005 general election, the Conservative majority would have been 174. However I see from someone posting on the site that Rallings & Thresher from the University of Plymouth put the position at a Labour majority of 2397. Analysis of what happened last time as an indicator of what might happen next time is all very interesting and I am certainly encouraged by what I read here, particularly when read in conjunction with recent opinion polls. The next big indicator, of course, will be the Rugby Borough Council election results when we are likely to have to wait a little longer to find out how the voters feel. I hear that counting will be on the Friday morning rather than on the same night as polling finishes. A great shame, as I have attended many counts over the years and they are always an “event” full of drama, theatre and tradition It’s never quite the same the next day and I hope this part of the democratic process won’t be lost for ever.